U.S. hotel performance slipped in 2025, with occupancy and RevPAR down for the first time since 2020, and 2026 is shaping up as a grind marked by uneven market performance, rising supply, and tighter margins.
Different Cities, Same Math: NYC vs. Hawai’i
New York City’s strict short-term rental rules remain intact, tightening visitor supply and lifting hotel rates, while recent Manhattan ground-lease land pricing offers a striking comparison to Waikīkī’s underlying land value.
New York Times Story That Should Get the Industry’s Attention
A recent New York Times analysis warns U.S. international travel is slipping into 2026, with fewer visits and lower spending driven by fees, visa delays, and border friction, risks that hit Hawaiʻi hard given its reliance on Canada and Japan.
2026 Hawai’i Hotel Hui Predictions
HHH wraps its first year with 10 predictions for 2026, from flat hotel performance and luxury resilience to AI-driven search, hotel debt activity, Green Fee debates, and rising CEO compensation.
It’s Baaack: Vacasa Gets Rewired
Casago’s acquisition and dismantling of Vacasa signals a shift to its franchise-first model, raising questions about whether lean local operators and tight owner-manager splits can sustain a new era of vacation rental management in Hawaiʻi.
TripAdvisor Lost the Plot — and Now 20% of Its Staff
TripAdvisor is laying off 20% of its staff as it pivots toward experiences and AI, but years of overmonetization and declining trust mean the platform’s bid for relevance may already be too late.
K-Shaped Recovery Joins the HHH Dictionary
Travel’s “K-shaped recovery” is here, premium airlines and luxury spend are booming while midscale hotels and budget travelers pull back, splitting the industry between those climbing and those sliding.
Wyndham Solves Loyalty by Charging for It
Wyndham launches a $95/year “Rewards Insider” subscription, part hotel perks, part travel club, joining IHG and Outrigger in the pay-to-play loyalty trend as brands chase recurring revenue and new ways to keep guests engaged.
Flat Is the New Up? Q3 hotel earnings are out, and 2025 just got downgraded, again.
Q3 hotel earnings show U.S. RevPAR slipping, group and government travel weakening, and 2025 forecasts flattening across Hilton, IHG, and Wyndham, while Accor remains the lone bright spot.
Shutdowns, Sick Days, and a Billion Bucks a Week
The federal shutdown is costing the U.S. travel sector $1B a week, and with Canadian and other international arrivals plunging, Hawaiʻi faces mounting headwinds despite parks and airports remaining open.
