In the early 1990s, Netscape ruled the browser world until Microsoft bundled Internet Explorer and pulled the market out from under it. Are we starting to see something similar play out in generative AI?
OpenAI’s ChatGPT popularized the category and deserves credit for it. But for those of us using it daily for research, analysis, coding, and document creation, the experience is starting to feel worn. The tool still works, but it increasingly feels like an employee who needs constant supervision.
If I had to correct a human staff member as often as I find myself correcting ChatGPT lately, they would not have made it through probation. Between model drift, inconsistent outputs, and frequent re-prompting, some of the early magic has faded. Meanwhile, Google Gemini has quietly evolved from a me-too product into something far more capable. The interface is cleaner, and in many use cases, the results now feel on par with, or better than, the competition.
Like Microsoft in the 1990s, Google’s real advantage is distribution and integration. By embedding Gemini directly into tools many of us already live in, Gmail, Drive, Sheets, Docs, and Analytics, Google is building a moat that is hard to replicate. It also helps that Google can fund this race internally. Unlike OpenAI, which continues to operate at significant losses, Google is financing AI development with enormous and ongoing cash flow while still posting record revenues.
Two recent developments suggest this shift may be solidifying.
- First, Apple has confirmed that Google Gemini will be one of the model providers integrated into the next generation of Siri, expected in 2026. Read More.
- Second, Google recently introduced its Universal Commerce Protocol, partnering with Walmart, Shopify, and Target to enable native purchasing directly inside Gemini. At that point, the product stops being just a chatbot and starts looking like a transaction engine. Read More.
None of this means OpenAI is finished. But if performance issues and user friction persist, history suggests early category leaders are not guaranteed to stay on top. Without meaningful improvements or deeper strategic partnerships, OpenAI risks ending up in the same tech graveyard as Netscape Navigator.
BTW- If you are interested in the Browser Wars, here is a fantastic podcast about it.
