If you were hoping for a calm, predictable final months of 2025 in the hotel sector, think again. The latest updates from Expedia, Marriott, Airbnb, and the Hotel Data Conference all point to one thing: the post-pandemic recovery is over, and the next lodging cycle has begun.
Expedia’s Q2 GBV rose 4%, but U.S. growth was minimal and propped up by heavier promos. Asia jumped 20%, B2B was up 17%, but Vrbo slid on lower ADRs and shorter stays.
Marriott’s global RevPAR grew 1.5%, flat in the U.S./Canada. Luxury held firm, but select service took a hit on a 16% drop in government room nights and softer group demand. Full-year RevPAR guidance now sits at the low end of its 1.5–2.5% range, technically growth, but barely keeping up with inflation.
Airbnb posted 9% GBV growth, with room nights up 7%. North America was steady, APAC grew mid-teens, and LatAm surged nearly 30%. Mobile bookings are now 59% of the mix, and lead times are normalized. Q3 room nights are expected to be up 7–8%, but growth is forecast to ease into Q4. Oh, and they’re “going significantly more aggressively into hotels” because clearly what every hotel needs is another OTA in the mix.
At the Hotel Data Conference, STR cut 2025 U.S. RevPAR forecasts to -0.1%. Luxury stays resilient, but midscale/economy face occupancy and margin pressure. Operators are doubling down on AI adoption and unified data to navigate what’s looking like a bumpy cycle ahead.
