After a sluggish summer and soft fall, Hawaiʻi’s visitor economy is flashing yellow. Arrivals dropped for three straight months (down 4.4% in July, 2.6% in August, 2.5% in September), and operators are reacting: cutting hours and forecasting layoffs.
Visitor spending is up. But it’s not enough to offset rising costs or weaker demand. UHERO reports stalled job growth and contraction in tourism-driven sectors. Some industry leaders say this is the worst economic-driven downturn since 2008.
Meanwhile, Expedia just posted stellar Q3 gains, driven by, among other things, U.S. travel demand. So why isn’t Hawaiʻi feeling the lift?
The lack of a statewide marketing strategy doesn’t help. HTA’s plans remain in limbo, the budget’s been cut, and the convention center closure looms. Japan’s comeback is slow, and Canadians are skipping U.S. trips altogether.
At the Aloha AHICE conference earlier this month, some speakers expressed cautious optimism that 2026 might bring relief once the market adjusts to a new administration and economic jitters settle. The expression used was “we are starting to see green shoots.” We hope they are right. But hope is not a strategy.
The message I keep hearing at industry events and in discussions with Hawaii hotel and toursim leaders, is that Hawai‘i is being outspent and outmarketed. Competing destinations are louder, clearer, and more aggressive. Meanwhile, we are sending mixed signals. Some visitors are wondering if they are even welcome. It is time to fix the optics and the outreach.
