CBRE and STR/Tourism Economics have both trimmed their 2025 U.S. hotel forecasts—again. CBRE now pegs RevPAR growth at 1.3%, down from 2%. STR/Tourism Economics cites Q1 underperformance and macro uncertainty, revising 2025 projections downward across the board: demand (-0.6%), ADR (-0.3%), RevPAR (-0.8%), and GOPAR (down $3 thanks to rising costs and weaker demand).
PWC paints a similar picture with a continued demand bifurcation, macro-driven headwinds, and a fragile consumer landscape in 2025. Upscale and urban markets may hold their ground, but the middle and lower segments—and leisure-heavy destinations—will feel the squeeze. Strategic planning, especially around pricing and segmentation, will be key.
A key drag? Declining international leisure travel, fragile consumer confidence, and shortened booking windows. While mainland drive-to destinations may see modest gains, here in Hawaiʻi, we’ll need to work harder for ours.
At the NYU Lodging conference, where many Hotel CEO’s spoke, the mood was surprisingly calm, but the outlook still depends on close-in bookings, discount-driven transient demand, and a supply pipeline that won’t budge until 2027.
But none of that gets easier with headlines about tourists being turned away, talk of annexation, tariffs, travel bans, and now an expected 80% cut to Brand USA’s budget.
BTW- If you are interested in supporting the effort to protect BrandUSA funds, you can send a message to your Senators here.
