As we close out 2026 and our first year of producing HHH, we couldn’t resist but to give our top 10 Predictions for 2026. It will be fun to look back at the end of 2026 to see how we did. If you have any predictions, please email them to us, and we will include them in the next issue!
2026 prediction list
- Flat is the new up, and holding ground is now considered a win for non-luxury properties.
- Luxury holds, widening the gap between properties that can push rate and those that cannot.
- Green Fee dollars become the most discussed pool of money, with very little actually allocated to their intended use.
- Japan continues a slow recovery, but the old 2019 baseline is gone and should no longer be used as a comparison metric.
- While it may pass Council, Maui’s Bill 9 limiting short-term rentals is far from settled and likely headed for the courts.
- AI hype cools, but AI search gets real as hotel visibility, click costs, and direct bookings are increasingly set by opaque, AI-driven ranking and ad systems, with Google regaining its crown.
- Hotel debt, refinancing pressure, and slightly better terms than 2025 drive more deal activity, expect a few big ones!
- HTA finally lands a permanent CEO and more funding, but remains well below peak levels, limiting how aggressive statewide marketing can be in 2026.
- The Mandarin Oriental Ala Moana project gets scrapped.
- The Lost City of Atlantis will still be lost with no movement and/or potential announcement of a different use for the land on the west side.
Holiday Cheer, Executive Edition
And finally, as you wrap up the year and wrap up your Christmas presents, you might not want to give one to the CEO. Reported hotel CEO compensation jumped again this year, rising from roughly $9.8 million to $11.9 million on average, driven largely by long-term incentives, while the average hospitality salary stalled just under $58,000. I included OTA CEOs as well, so you can see where your commission is going ;-).
- Glenn Fogel, Booking Holdings: ~$44.8M
- Anthony Capuano, Marriott International: ~$29M
- Chris Nassetta, Hilton: ~$22M
- Mark Hoplamazian, Hyatt: ~$18M
- Geoff Ballotti, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts: ~$13–14M
- Ariane Gorin, Expedia Group: ~$13–14M
- Elie Malouf, IHG: ~$8–9M
- Sébastien Bazin, Accor: ~$7–8M
