A person in the know recently pinged me with a cryptic heads-up: “Start watching the debt at a lot of the Oʻahu and Maui hotels.” No details, no follow-up, just a subtle, ominous message. I felt like Woodward and Bernstein in the garage talking to Deep Throat.
Here’s the subtext: A chunk of hotels, especially those that refi’d during the easy-money years (think 2020–2022), are now staring down maturities in a higher-rate world. Combine that with Maui’s sluggish recovery and softening international demand, and you’ve got properties where the math may no longer work. Even on Oʻahu, RevPAR gains are being chipped away by higher operating costs, rising insurance, and taxes that are not going down.
We’ve seen signs. The Fairmont Orchid just locked a $136M refi mid-reno, and the Grand Wailea pulled a $1B refi. Meanwhile, smaller Waikīkī hotels are quietly hitting the market, fee simple and unencumbered, aka “buy now, bring your own rescue plan.”
Keep an eye on loan maturities, capital calls, and ownership changes. Distress won’t scream, it’ll whisper, just like my source.
